Impact of long-COVID on health-related quality of life in Japanese COVID-19 patients (preprint)

Background: The empirical basis for a quantitative assessment of the disease burden imposed by long-COVID is currently scant. We aimed to assess the disease burden caused by long-COVID in Japan. Methods: We conducted a cross sectional self-report questionnaire survey. The questionnaire was mailed to 530 eligible patients, who were recovered from acute COVID-19 in April 2021. Answers were classified into two groups; participants who have no symptom and those who have any ongoing symptoms that lasted longer than four weeks at the time of the survey. We compared health-related quality of life scores estimated by the EQ-5D-3L questionnaire between these two groups after adjusting basic characteristics of the participants by propensity score matching. Results: 349 participants reported no symptoms and 108 reported any symptoms at the time of the survey. The participants who reported any symptoms showed a lower value on a Visual Analogue Scale (median 70 [IQR 60-80]) and on the EQ-5D-3L (median 0.81 [IQR 0.77-1.0]) than those reporting no symptoms (median 85 [IQR 75-90] and 1.0 [IQR 1.0-1.0], respectively). After adjusting for background characteristics, these trends did not change substantially (Visual Analog Scale: median 70 [IQR 60-80] vs 80 [IQR 77-90], EQ-5D-3L: median 0.81 [IQR 0.76-1.0] vs 1.0 [IQR 1.0-1.0]). Conclusions: Due to their long duration, long-COVID symptoms represent a substantial disease burden expressed in impact on health-related quality of life.

Social contact patterns following the COVID-19 pandemic: a snapshot of post-pandemic behaviour from the CoMix study (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented changes in behaviour. To estimate if these persisted a final new round of the CoMix survey was conducted in four countries at a time when all societal restrictions had been lifted for several months. We conducted a survey on a nationally representative sample in the UK, Netherlands (NL), Belgium (BE), and Switzerland (CH). Participants were asked about their contacts and behaviours on the previous day. We calculated contact matrices and compared the contact levels to a pre-pandemic baseline to estimate R0. Data collection occurred from 17 November to 7 December 2022. 7,477 participants were recruited. Some were asked to undertake the survey on behalf of their children. Only 14.4% of all participants reported wearing a facemask on the previous day, varying between 6.7% in NL to 17.8% in CH. Self-reported vaccination rates in adults were similar for each country at around 86%. Trimmed mean recorded contacts were highest in NL with 9.9 (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.0 to 10.8) contacts per person per day and lowest in CH at 6.0 (95% CI 5.4 to 6.6). The number of contacts at home were similar between the countries. Contacts at work were lowest in the UK (1.4 contacts per person per day) and highest in NL at 2.8 contacts per person per day. Other contacts were also lower in the UK at 1.6 per person per day (95% CI 1.4 to 1.9) and highest in NL at 3.4 recorded per person per day (95% CI 4.0 to 4.0). Using the next-generation approach suggests that R0 for a close-contact disease would be roughly half pre-pandemic levels in the UK, 80% in NL and intermediate in the other two countries. The pandemic appears to have resulted in lasting changes in contact patterns that would be expected to have an impact on the epidemiology of many different pathogens. Further post-pandemic surveys are necessary to confirm this finding.

The estimated disease burden of COVID-19 in Japan from 2020 to 2021 (preprint)

BackgroundTo date, it is not fully understood to what extent COVID-19 has burdened society in Japan. This study aimed to estimate the total disease burden due to COVID-19 in Japan during 2020-2021. MethodsWe stratify disease burden estimates by age group and present it as absolute Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) lost and QALYs lost per 100,000 persons. The total estimated value of QALYs lost consists of (1) QALYs lost brought by deaths due to COVID-19, (2) QALYs lost brought by inpatient cases, (3) QALYs lost brought by outpatient cases, and (4) QALYs lost brought by long-COVID. FindingsQALYs lost due to COVID-19 was estimated as 286,781{middle dot}7 for two years, 114{middle dot}0 QALYs per 100,000 population per year. 71{middle dot}3% of them were explained by the burden derived from deaths. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the burden of outpatient cases was the most sensitive factor. InterpretationThe large part of disease burden due to COVID-19 in Japan from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2021 was derived from Wave 3, 4, and 5 and the proportion of QALYs lost due to morbidity in the total burden increased gradually. The estimated disease burden was smaller than that in other high-income countries. It will be our future challenge to take other indirect factors into consideration. FundingsThis research was funded by JSPS KAKENHI [Grant number 20K10546]. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

The influence of COVID-19 risk perception and vaccination status on the number of social contacts across Europe: insights from the CoMix study (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics have been greatly modulated by human contact behaviour. To curb the spread of the virus, global efforts focused on implementing both Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) and pharmaceutical interventions such as vaccination. This study was conducted to explore the influence of COVID-19 vaccination status and risk perceptions related to SARS-CoV-2 on the number of social contacts of individuals in 16 European countries. This is important since insights derived from the study could be utilized in guiding the formulation of risk communication strategies. We used data from longitudinal surveys conducted in the 16 European countries to measure social contact behaviour in the course of the pandemic. The data consisted of representative panels of participants in terms of gender, age and region of residence in each country. The surveys were conducted in several rounds between December 2020 and September 2021. We employed a multilevel generalized linear mixed effects model to explore the influence of risk perceptions and COVID-19 vaccination status on the number of social contacts of individuals. The results indicated that perceived severity played a significant role in social contact behaviour during the pandemic after controlling for other variables. More specifically, participants who perceived COVID-19 to be a serious illness made fewer contacts compared to those who had low or neutral perceptions of the COVID-19 severity. Additionally, vaccinated individuals reported significantly higher number of contacts than the non-vaccinated. Furthermore, individual-level factors played a more substantial role in influencing contact behaviour than country-level factors. Our multi-country study yields significant insights on the importance of risk perceptions and vaccination in behavioural changes during a pandemic emergency. The apparent increase in social contact behaviour following vaccination would require urgent intervention in the event of emergence of an immune escaping variant. Hence, insights derived from this study could be taken into account when designing, implementing and communicating COVID-19 interventions.

Dynamics of non-household contacts during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 in the Netherlands (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic was in 2020 and 2021 for a large part mitigated by reducing contacts in the general population. To monitor how these contacts changed over the course of the pandemic in the Netherlands, a longitudinal survey was conducted where participants reported on their at-risk contacts every two weeks, as part of the European CoMix survey. The survey included 1659 participants from April to August 2020 and 2514 participants from December 2020 to September 2021. We categorized the number of unique contacted persons excluding household members, reported per participant per day into six activity levels, defined as 0, 1, 2, 3-4, 5-9 and 10 or more reported contacts. After correcting for age, vaccination status, risk status for severe outcome of infection, and frequency of participation, activity levels increased over time, coinciding with relaxation of COVID-19 control measures.

Social contact patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in 21 European countries: evidence from a two-year study (preprint)

Most countries have enacted some restrictions to reduce social contacts to slow down disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic. For nearly two years, individuals likely also adopted new behaviours to avoid pathogen exposure based on personal circumstances. We aimed to understand the way in which different factors affect social contacts, a critical step to improving future pandemic responses. The analysis was based on repeated cross-sectional contact survey data collected in 21 European countries between March 2020 and March 2022. We calculated the mean daily contacts reported using a clustered bootstrap by country and by settings (at home, at work, or in other settings). Where data were available, contact rates during the study period were compared with rates recorded prior to the pandemic. We fitted censored individual-level generalized additive mixed models to examine the effects of various factors on the number of social contacts. The survey recorded 463,336 observations from 96,456 participants. In all countries where comparison data were available, contact rates over the previous two years were substantially lower than those seen prior to the pandemic (approximately from over 10 to <5), predominantly due to fewer contacts outside the home. Government restrictions imposed immediate effect on contacts, and these effects lingered after the restrictions were lifted. Across countries, the relationships between national policy, individual perceptions, or personal circumstances determining contacts varied. Our study, coordinated at the regional level, provides important insights into the understanding of the factors associated with social contacts to support future infectious disease outbreak responses.

Impact of tiered measures on social contact and mixing patterns in Italy during the second wave of COVID-19 (preprint)

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected social contact patterns worldwide. Particularly during the first epidemic wave, because of the lack of specific treatment or vaccine, most countries around the world enforced non-pharmaceutical interventions. Italy was one of the first countries to be strongly affected by the pandemic, imposing in the first epidemic wave a hard lockdown. During the second wave, the country implemented color-coded, progressively restrictive tiers at the regional level according to weekly epidemiological risk assessments. Methods: We analyze longitudinal surveys of a representative sample of the Italian population by age, gender, and region of residence, collected during the second epidemic wave. After presenting a statistical description of the sample, we compare variations in contact patterns according to a color-coded tier of interventions experienced by the participants. In particular, we use contact matrices to quantify the reduction in the number of contacts by age group and contact settings, focusing on the adult population. We also compare the results with the pre-pandemic baseline assessing the impact of tiered restrictions on contacts. Finally, we compute the reproduction number to evaluate the impact of the restrictions on the spreading of the disease.Results: The comparison with the pre-pandemic baseline, shows a significant decrease in the number of contacts, independently from the age group or contact settings. Moreover, we show that the decrease in the number of contacts significantly depends on the strictness of the non-pharmaceutical interventions. For all levels of strictness considered, the reduction in social mixing results in a reproduction number smaller than one. In particular, the impact of the restriction on the number of contacts decreases with the severity of the interventions. Conclusions: We showed that the progressive restriction tiers implemented in Italy reduced overall the reproduction number, with stricter interventions associated with higher reductions. Readily collected contact data can promptly inform the implementation of mitigation measures at the national level in epidemic emergencies to come.

Pregnancy during COVID-19: social contact patterns and vaccine coverage of pregnant women from CoMix in 19 European countries (preprint)

BackgroundEvidence and advice for pregnant women evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic. We studied social contact behaviour and vaccine uptake in pregnant women between March 2020 and September 2021 in 19 European countries. MethodsIn each country, repeated online survey data were collected from a panel of nationally-representative participants. We calculated the mean adjusted contacts reported with an individual-level generalized additive mixed model, modelled using the negative binomial distribution and a log link function. Mean proportion of people in isolation or quarantine, and vaccination coverage by pregnancy status and gender were calculated using a clustered bootstrap. FindingsWe recorded 4,129 observations from 1,041 pregnant women, and 115,359 observations from 29,860 non-pregnant individuals aged 18-49. Pregnant women made slightly fewer contacts (3.6, 95%CI=3.5-3.7) than non-pregnant women (4.0, 95%CI=3.9-4.0), driven by fewer work contacts but marginally more contacts in non-essential social settings. Approximately 15-20% pregnant and 5% of non-pregnant individuals reported to be in isolation and quarantine for large parts of the study period. COVID-19 vaccine coverage was higher in pregnant women than in non-pregnant women between January and April 2021. Since May 2021, vaccination in non-pregnant women began to increase and surpassed that in pregnant women. InterpretationSocial contacts and vaccine uptake protect pregnant women and their newborn babies. Recognition of maternal social support need, and efforts to promote the safety and effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines during pregnancy are high priorities in this vulnerable group.

Different forms of superspreading lead to different outcomes: heterogeneity in infectiousness and contact behavior relevant for the case of SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

Superspreading events play an important role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and several other pathogens. Hence, while the basic reproduction number of the original Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be about 3 for Belgium, there is substantial inter-individual variation in the number of secondary cases each infected individual causes. Multiple factors contribute to the occurrence of superspreading events: heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility, variations in contact behavior, and the environment in which transmission takes place. While superspreading has been included in several infectious disease transmission models, our understanding of the effect that these different forms of superspreading have on the spread of pathogens and the effectiveness of control measures remains limited. To disentangle the effects of infectiousness-related heterogeneity on the one hand and contact-related heterogeneity on the other, we implemented both forms of superspreading in an individual-based model describing the transmission and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Belgian population. We considered its impact on viral spread as well as on the effectiveness of social distancing. We found that the effects of superspreading driven by heterogeneity in infectiousness are very different from the effects of superspreading driven by heterogeneity in contact behavior. On the one hand, a higher level of infectiousness-related heterogeneity results in less outbreaks occurring following the introduction of one infected individual. Outbreaks were also slower, with a lower peak which occurred at a later point in time, and a lower herd immunity threshold. Finally, the risk of resurgence of an outbreak following a period of lockdown decreased. On the other hand, when contact-related heterogeneity was high, this also led to smaller final sizes, but caused outbreaks to be more explosive in regard to other aspects (such as higher peaks which occurred earlier, and a higher herd immunity threshold). Finally, the risk of resurgence of an outbreak following a period of lockdown increased. Determining the contribution of both source of heterogeneity is therefore important but left to be explored further. Author summaryTo investigate the effect of different sources of superspreading on disease dynamics, we implemented superspreading driven by heterogeneity in infectiousness and heterogeneity in contact behavior into an individual-based model for the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Belgian population. We compared the impact of both forms of superspreading in a scenario without interventions as well as in a scenario in which a period of strict social distancing (i.e. a lockdown) is followed by a period of partial release. We found that both forms of superspreading have very different effects. On the one hand, increasing the level of infectiousness-related heterogeneity led to less outbreaks being observed following the introduction of one infected individual in the population. Furthermore, final outbreak sizes decreased, and outbreaks became slower, with lower and later peaks, and a lower herd immunity threshold. Finally, the risk for resurgence of an outbreak following a period of lockdown also decreased. On the other hand, when contact-related heterogeneity was high, this also led to smaller final sizes, but caused outbreaks to be more explosive regarding other aspects (such as higher peaks that occurred earlier). The herd immunity threshold also increased, as did the risk of resurgence of outbreaks.

The influence of risk perceptions on close contact frequency during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (preprint)

Human behaviour is known to be crucial in the propagation of infectious diseases through respiratory or close-contact routes like the current SARS-CoV-2 virus. Intervention measures implemented to curb the spread of the virus mainly aim at limiting the number of close contacts, until vaccine roll-out is complete. Our main objective was to assess the relationships between SARS-CoV-2 perceptions and social contact behaviour in Belgium. Understanding these relationships is crucial to maximize interventions' effectiveness, e.g. by tailoring public health communication campaigns. In this study, we surveyed a representative sample of adults in Belgium in two longitudinal surveys (8 waves of survey 1 in April 2020 to August 2020, and 11 waves of survey 2 in November 2020 to April 2021). Generalized linear mixed effects models were used to analyse the two surveys. Participants with low and neutral perceptions on perceived severity made a significantly higher number of social contacts as compared to participants with high levels of perceived severity after controlling for other variables. Furthermore, participants with higher levels of perceived effectiveness of measures and perceived adherence to measures made fewer contacts. However, the differences were small. Our results highlight the key role of perceived severity on social contact behaviour during a pandemic. Nevertheless, additional research is required to investigate the impact of public health communication on severity of COVID-19 in terms of changes in social contact behaviour.

Inferring age-specific differences in susceptibility to and infectiousness upon SARS-CoV-2 infection based on Belgian social contact data (preprint)

Several important aspects related to SARS-CoV-2 transmission are not well known due to a lack of appropriate data. However, mathematical and computational tools can be used to extract part of this information from the available data, like some hidden age-related characteristics. In this paper, we investigate age-specific differences in susceptibility to and infectiousness upon contracting SARS-CoV-2 infection. More specifically, we use panel-based social contact data from diary-based surveys conducted in Belgium combined with the next generation principle to infer the relative incidence and we compare this to real-life incidence data. Comparing these two allows for the estimation of age-specific transmission parameters. Our analysis implies the susceptibility in children to be around half of the susceptibility in adults, and even lower for very young children (preschooler). However, the probability of adults and the elderly to contract the infection is decreasing throughout the vaccination campaign, thereby modifying the picture over time.

Impact of Long-COVID on Health-related Quality of Life in Japanese COVID-19 Patients (preprint)

Background: The empirical basis for a quantitative assessment of the disease burden imposed by long-COVID is currently scant. We aimed to assess the disease burden caused by long-COVID in Japan. Methods: : We conducted a cross sectional self-report questionnaire survey. The questionnaire was mailed to 530 eligible patients, who were recovered from acute COVID-19 in April 2021. Answers were classified into two groups; participants who have no symptom and those who have any ongoing symptoms that lasted longer than four weeks at the time of the survey. We compared health-related quality of life scores estimated by the EQ-5D-3L questionnaire between these two groups after adjusting basic characteristics of the participants by propensity score matching. Results: : 349 participants reported no symptoms and 108 reported any symptoms at the time of the survey. The participants who reported any symptoms showed a lower value on a Visual Analogue Scale (median 70 [IQR 60-80]) and on the EQ-5D-3L (median 0.81 [IQR 0.77-1.0]) than those reporting no symptoms (median 85 [IQR 75-90] and 1.0 [IQR 1.0-1.0], respectively). After adjusting for background characteristics, these trends did not change substantially (Visual Analog Scale: median 70 [IQR 60-80] vs 80 [IQR 77-90], EQ-5D-3L: median 0.81 [IQR 0.76-1.0] vs 1.0 [IQR 1.0-1.0]). Conclusions: : Due to their long duration, long-COVID symptoms represent a substantial disease burden expressed in impact on health-related quality of life. Trial registration: Not applicable.

Time trends in social contacts before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: the CONNECT study (preprint)

ABSTRACT Background: Since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, many countries, including Canada, have adopted unprecedented physical distancing measures such as closure of schools and non-essential businesses, and restrictions on gatherings and household visits. We described time trends in social contacts for the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods in Quebec, Canada. Methods: CONNECT is a population-based study of social contacts conducted shortly before (2018/2019) and during the Covid-19 pandemic (April 2020 to February 2021), using the same methodology for both periods. We recruited participants by random-digit-dialing and collected data by self-administered web-based questionnaires. Questionnaires documented socio-demographic characteristics and social contacts for two assigned days. A contact was defined as a two-way conversation at a distance [≤]2 meters or as a physical contact, irrespective of masking. We used weighted generalized linear models with a Poisson distribution and robust variance (taking possible overdispersion into account) to compare the mean number of social contacts over time by characteristics. Results: A total of 1291 and 5516 Quebecers completed the study before and during the pandemic, respectively. Contacts significantly decreased from a mean of 8 contacts/day prior to the pandemic to 3 contacts/day during the spring 2020 lockdown. Contacts remained lower than the pre-Covid period thereafter (lowest=3 contacts/day during the Christmas 2020/2021 holidays, highest=5 in September 2020). Contacts at work, during leisure activities/other locations, and at home with visitors showed the greatest decreases since the beginning of the pandemic. All sociodemographic subgroups showed significant decreases of contacts since the beginning of the pandemic. Conclusion: Physical distancing measures in Quebec significantly decreased social contacts, which most likely mitigated the spread of Covid-19.

Impact of long-COVID on health-related quality of life in Japanese COVID-19 patients (preprint)

BackgroundThe empirical basis for a quantitative assessment of the disease burden imposed by long-COVID is currently scant. We aimed to assess the disease burden caused by long-COVID in Japan. MethodsWe conducted a cross sectional self-report questionnaire survey. The questionnaire was mailed to 530 eligible patients, who were recovered from acute COVID-19 in April 2021. Answers were classified into two groups; participants who have no symptom and those who have any ongoing symptoms that lasted longer than four weeks at the time of the survey. We compared health-related quality of life scores estimated by the EQ-5D-3L questionnaire between these two groups after adjusting basic characteristics of the participants by propensity score matching. Results349 participants reported no symptoms and 108 reported any symptoms at the time of the survey. The participants who reported any symptoms showed a lower value on a Visual Analogue Scale (median 70 [IQR 60-80]) and on the EQ-5D-3L (median 0.81 [IQR 0.77-1.0]) than those reporting no symptoms (median 85 [IQR 75-90] and 1.0 [IQR 1.0-1.0], respectively). After adjusting for background characteristics, these trends did not change substantially (Visual Analog Scale: median 70 [IQR 60-80] vs 80 [IQR 77-90], EQ-5D-3L: median 0.81 [IQR 0.76-1.0] vs 1.0 [IQR 1.0-1.0]). ConclusionsDue to their long duration, long-COVID symptoms represent a substantial disease burden expressed in impact on health-related quality of life. Trial registrationNot applicable.

The burden of isolation to the individual: a comparison between isolation for COVID-19 and for other influenza-like illnesses in Japan (preprint)

At present, there is scarce evidence about how much burden the isolation of COVID-19 patients is. We aimed to assess the differences between COVID-19 and other influenza like illnesses in disease burden brought by isolation. We conducted an online questionnaire survey of 302 people who had COVID-19 or other influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) and compared the burden of isolation due to sickness with one-to-one propensity score matching. The primary outcomes are the duration and productivity losses of isolation, the secondary outcome is quality of life (QOL) valuation on the day of the survey. Acute symptoms of outpatient COVID-19 and other ILIs lasted 17 (interquartile range [IQR] 9-32) and 7 (IQR 4-10) days, respectively. The length of isolation due to COVID-19 was 18 (IQR 10-33) days and that due to other ILIs was 7 (IQR 4-11) days, respectively. The monetary productivity loss of isolation due to COVID-19 was 1424.3 (IQR 825.6-2545.5) USD and that due to other ILIs was 606.1 (IQR 297.0-1090.9) USD, respectively. QOL at the time of the survey was lower in the COVID-19 group than in the "other ILIs" group (0.89 and 0.96, p = 0.001). COVID-19 infection imposes a substantial disease burden, even in patients with non-severe disease. This burden is larger for COVID-19 than other ILIs, mainly because the required isolation period is longer.

A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation (preprint)

How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence COVID-19 in Europe. The future challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern, and public responses to nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people are still unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing is expected to increase over the summer. Therefore, policies that lift restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission due to vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in the summer. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, but a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects are put into perspective with the economic, social, and health-related consequences and thereby provide a holistic perspective on the future of COVID-19.

COVID-19 Vaccine Prioritisation in Japan and South Korea (preprint)

Background Due to a limited initial supply of COVID-19 vaccines, the prioritisation of individuals for vaccination is of utmost importance for public health. Here, we provide the optimal allocation strategy for COVID-19 vaccines according to age in Japan and South Korea. Methods Combining national case reports, age-specific contact matrices, and observed periods between each stages of infection (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Quarantined), we constructed a compartmental model. We estimated the age-stratified probability of transmission given contact (q_i) using Bayesian inference method and simulated different vaccination scenarios to reduce either case numbers or death toll. We also performed sensitivity analyses on the proportion of asymptomatic cases and vaccine efficacy. Findings The model inferred age-stratified probability of transmission given contact (q_i) showed similar age-dependent increase in Japan and South Korea. Assuming the reported COVID-19 vaccine efficacy, our results indicate that Japan and South Korea need to prioritise individuals aged 20-35 years and individuals aged over 60 years, respectively, to minimise case numbers. To minimise the death toll, both countries need to prioritise individuals aged over 75 years. These trends were not changed by proportions of asymptomatic cases and varying vaccine efficacy on individuals under 20 years. Interpretation We presented the optimal vaccination strategy for Japan and South Korea. Comparing the results of these countries demonstrates that not only the effective contact rates containing q_i but also the age-demographics of current epidemic in Japan (dominance in 20s) and South Korea (dominant cases over 50s) affect vaccine allocation strategy.

CoMix: comparing mixing patterns in the Belgian population during and after lockdown (preprint)

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how a newly emergent communicable disease can lay considerable burden on public health. To avoid system collapse, governments have resorted to several social distancing measures. In Belgium, this included a lockdown and a following period of phased re-opening. Methods A representative sample of Belgian adults was asked about their contact behaviour from mid-April to mid-July, during different stages of the intervention measures in Belgium. Use of personal protection equipment (face masks) and compliance to hygienic measures was also reported. We estimated the expected reproduction number computing the ratio of R 0 with respect to pre-pandemic data. Findings During the first two waves (the first month) of the survey, the reduction in the average number of contacts was around 80% and was quite consistent across all age-classes. The average number of contacts increased over time, particularly for the younger age classes, still remaining significantly lower than pre-pandemic values. Since the end of May, the estimated reproduction number has a median value larger than one, although with a wide dispersion. Conclusions We have shown how a rapidly deployed survey can measure compliance to social distancing and assess its impact on COVID-19 spread. Monitoring the effectiveness of social distancing recommendations is of paramount importance to avoid further waves of COVID-19.

A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies (preprint)

BackgroundIn response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, several countries adopted measures of social distancing to a different degree. For many countries, after successfully curbing the initial wave, lockdown measures were gradually lifted. In Belgium, such relief started on May 4th with phase 1, followed by several subsequent phases over the next few weeks. MethodsWe analysed the expected impact of relaxing stringent lockdown measures taken according to the phased Belgian exit strategy. We developed a stochastic, data-informed, meta-population model that accounts for mixing and mobility of the age-structured population of Belgium. The model is calibrated to daily hospitalization data and serological data and is able to reproduce the outbreak at the national level. We consider different scenarios for relieving the lockdown, quantified in terms of relative reductions in pre-pandemic social mixing and mobility. We validate our assumptions by making comparisons with social contact data collected during and after the lockdown. ResultsOur model is able to successfully describe the initial wave of COVID-19 in Belgium and identifies interactions during leisure/other activities as pivotal in the exit strategy. Indeed, we find a smaller impact of school re-openings as compared to restarting leisure activities and re-openings of work places. We also assess the impact of case isolation of new (suspected) infections, and find that it allows re-establishing relatively more social interactions while still ensuring epidemic control. Scenarios predicting a second wave of hospitalizations were not observed, suggesting that the per-contact probability of infection has changed with respect to the pre-lockdown period. ConclusionsCommunity contacts are found to be most influential, followed by professional contacts and school contacts, respectively, for an impending second wave of COVID-19. Regular re-assessment is crucial to adjust to evolving behavioral changes that can affect epidemic diffusion. In addition to social distancing, sufficient capacity for extensive testing and contact tracing is essential for successful mitigation.